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West Pacific/2015/10W/Archive/10
Public advisory TROPICAL STORM LINFA PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 10 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 12:00 AM JST SUN JUL 05 2015 ...LINFA POSIED TO BE A HEAVY RAINMAKER FOR LUZON... SUMMARY OF 12:00 AM JST...15:00 UTC...INFORMATION ------------------------------------------------------------------- LOCATION...17.2N, 123.3E CENTER POSITION CONFIDENCE: LOW ... ± 70 MI... 110 KM ABOUT 235 MI...180 KM ENE OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 KT...60 MPH...95 KM/H MINIMUM BAROMETRIC PRESSURE...989 MB...29.27 INCHES PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW AT 8 KT...9 MPH...15 KM/H DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK --------------------------------------------- At 12:00 am JST, the center of Tropical Storm Linfa was situated near 17.2N, 123.3E, or about 235 miles (180 kilometers) east-northeast of Manila, Philippines. Maximum sustained winds were 50 knots (60 mph, 95 km/h), with higher gusts. The minimum barometric pressure was 989 millibars (hPa; 29.27 inHg), and the cyclone was tracking northwest at 8 knots (9 mph, 15 km/h). The upper-level environment ahead of Linfa is expected to continue providing favorable conditions for gradual development as this storm tracks towards Luzon. While the upper-level environment for Linfa may improve in the coming days, moderate to strong wind shear is expected to keep any development slow as Linfa tracks towards northeastern Luzon. NEXT ADVISORY ------------------- Next complete advisory at 06:00 am JST. $$ Forecaster TheAustinMan Discussion TROPICAL STORM LINFA DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 WIKI-HURRICANES FORECASTING CENTER 12:00 AM JST SUN JUL 05 2015 Linfa remains a large batch of convection and has not become better organized over the past six hours. Currently most of the convection remains displaced southwest of the center, and although convection is become quite cold, the overall convective configuration doesn't seem apt for intensification as Linfa is currently being hampered by 20-30 knot shear that is not expected to weaken anytime soon. While the center of circulation remains under the cloud tops, a 1307z AMSU pass indicated that the deepest convective cells remained south of the center, which supports the apparent convection displacement on infrared seen over the past few hours. Although CIMSS-ADT suggests that Linfa is a 60 knot system, all other intensity estimates indicate a much weaker system, and ADT's adjusted T#s have also suggested a weaker system. As a blend between the aggressive CIMSS and the weaker estimates to which the current intensity is weighted towards, the intensity as been kept at 50 knots, though the pressure has decreased as a nod to the persistently deep convection. Models are in agreement that Linfa will likely strike northeastern Luzon, and the chance of the system recurving away from the Philippines is diminishing but nonetheless remains a distinct possibility. Landfall should occur later today, but due to the persistent shearing and the indication that Linfa's center of circulation may be on the brink of being exposed, strengthening is no longer anticipated up to landfall, though if the convection can continue pulsing towards the northeast, typhoon intensity is not completely out of the question at the time of landfall. Regardless, Linfa is expected to weaken over land, which, combined with a maxima in wind shear, should weaken the storm quite significantly. After landfall, a trough traversing East Asia is expected to prompt north or northeasterly motion, which will bring Linfa near Taiwan. During this time, Linfa should intensify over the Luzon Strait as wind shear is expected to decrease and conditions seem favorable. After 96 hours, some models, including the ECMWF, GFS, and HWRF, seem to indicate that Linfa will track westward into Taiwan, possibly due to interaction with their modeled Typhoon Chan-hom, which could potentially track into the East China Sea. Given the high degree of uncertainty with the specifics of interaction five days out, the WHFC track forecast is only depicting a slow down off the Taiwanese coast, but regardless Linfa is expected to weaken as by that point Chan-hom is expected to possess a large outflow field which could induce shear over Linfa. INIT 04/1500Z 17.2N 123.3E 50 KT 60 MPH ... NEAR LUZON 12H 05/0000Z 17.9N 122.5E 50 KT 60 MPH ... NEAR LUZON 24H 05/1200Z 18.5N 121.8E 40 KT 45 MPH ... EMERGING INTO LUZON STRAIT 36H 06/0000Z 19.5N 121.7E 40 KT 45 MPH 48H 06/1200Z 20.4N 121.8E 50 KT 60 MPH 72H 07/1200Z 21.8N 122.0E 60 KT 70 MPH ... NEAR TAIWAN 96H 08/1200Z 22.9N 122.0E 70 KT 80 MPH ... NEAR TAIWAN 120H 09/1200Z 24.1N 122.0E 60 KT 70 MPH ... NEAR TAIWAN $$ Forecaster TheAustinMan